A BAD BET ; PENTAGON DESERVES CRITICISM FOR TRYING TO DEPLOY A WEAPON OF MASS STUPIDITY 

31 July 2003
Buffalo News
FINAL
B12

The most stunning thing about a Pentagon proposal to establish an Internet 
wagering site for bets on atrocities and terrorism is that someone, 
somewhere in a defense complex trusted with the use of awesome powers, 
actually thought it was a good idea. 

That lack of judgment is troublesome, even if the level of disgust and 
disbelief at this proposal was enough to kill it quickly. In announcing its 
death, Senate Armed Forces Committee John Warner, R-Va., added that Congress 
will make sure it stays dead by pulling its funding. 

This idiotic idea was the brainchild of the Defense Advanced Research 
Projects Agency (DARPA), which also runs the much- criticized computerized 
surveillance project known as the Terrorism Awareness Information program. 
The plan was to open a federal betting parlor on such questions as whether 
Jordan's king will be overthrown, Yasser Arafat will be assassinated or 
North Korea will launch a missile attack. 

Styled as a futures market, the Policy Analysis Market site would have 
allowed registered traders to put money behind their predictions, drawing 
profits from the pool if their predictions came true. 

Here's a prediction: This harebrained idea would have harmed America's image 
around the world (and probably already has). It could have encouraged the 
kinds of terrorist activity it targeted for wagering. And any information it 
gathered -- DARPA apparently was hoping for insider information and a read 
on the probability of events -- would be worth far less than real knowledge 
garnered by improved and better-funded intelligence programs. 

The project, it turns out, was headed by retired Adm. John Poindexter, the 
Johnny Appleseed of bad ideas who also runs the Terrorism Awareness 
Information program. He was the national security adviser to former 
president Ronald Reagan, and helped hatch the scheme to sell arms to Iran 
and funnel the proceeds to Nicaraguan rebels in what became known as the 
Iran-Contra scandal. Poindexter was convicted of lying to Congress, a 
conviction that ultimately was overturned on appeal. 

DARPA already has spent $600,000 on the project, wanted to spend $149,000 
more this year and was asking for $8 million over the next two years. It 
would be far cheaper -- and better for the country -- just to fire Poindexter. 

Americans should be as outraged at this kind of thinking as they would by a 
foreign Web site that sought bets on the assassination of an American 
president or an attack on the Statue of Liberty. This idea was, as Sen. Tom 
Daschle, D-S.D., quickly noted, "irresponsible." 

That would be among the milder words that could be used to describe this 
wrongheaded plan.