EDITORIAL: Other futures market ideas PERSPECTIVE 529 Words 30 July 2003 Journal Gazette 8A TO: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld FROM: Admiral John Poindexter, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Rummy, I can't tell you how disappointed I am that our plan to create a futures market for Mideast terrorism has bit the dust. We'll proceed to dig up all the dirt we can on those two senators who blew the whistle, Dorgan of North Dakota and Wyden of Oregon. We have the capability to mine every computer database on the planet, so we should turn up something on them. As you know, I am a firm believer in the capability of the futures market specifically and the stock market in general to portend future events. Remember, for example, that not long after Enron's stock tanked, the company filed bankruptcy. And claims by senators that terrorists could profit from the futures market ignore the tough stock market regulations in place that prevent such profiteering, notwithstanding Enron, WorldCom, ImClone, etc. Even though the Mideast turmoil futures look dead for now (don't worry, it's in my tickler file to revive next year, right after Total Information Awareness), I hope you'll continue to push my other ideas for futures trading. Specifically: * Justice futures. Which Supreme Court justices will retire or die before the end of Bush II's Term I? I hear Pat Robertson is already begging to get into this one, claiming he has some inside knowledge. * Deficit futures. Which year of Term II will we hit $1 trillion? * Bill of Rights futures. Which of the first 10 amendments will be next to fall? This should be popular, especially since Ashcroft has pretty much gutted the Fifth (due process) and Sixth (right to trial by jury). I'm betting on the Fourth - terrorism would be a lot easier to fight if we could just start searching house-to-house, like they did in Russia and East Germany. * Tax cut futures. Which tax will W and Congress cut next? The corporate income tax? Capital gains taxes? The Medicare and Social Security payroll taxes on low-income workers (heh, heh)? * States futures. Which will be the first to default on bond payments and declare bankruptcy? * 22nd Amendment futures. Of course, we can't start betting on eliminating the two-term presidential limit until after W is re- elected, so this one can wait 18 months. For any of these to succeed, you'll need to keep the lid on. I still think the Mideast terrorism futures deal would have taken off if we could have kept it under wraps for a few more months. In conclusion, let me thank you and W again for naming me to this crucial post despite having been caught red-handed in the Iran- contra debacle in the Reagan years. And I appreciate your seeing the wisdom of my biggest proposals even though most Americans thought Total Information Awareness was a frightening invasion of privacy and that the terrorism futures plan was just bizarre. Rest assured, we here at DARPA continue to cook up even bigger ideas. Next time we talk, remind me to tell you about NKnk - North Korean nuclear keno.