LANCASTER NEW ERA (LANCASTER, PA.)

July 31, 2003, Thursday

SECTION: COMMENTARY, Pg. A-6, EDITORIALS

LENGTH: 568 words

HEADLINE: Don't bet on terror, but support DARPA

The plan to set up a national betting parlor on future terrorist 
attacks seems absurd on its face. As proposed by the Defense Advance 
Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the idea is easily ridiculed.

DARPA and two private partners would have set up an Internet futures 
trading market on Middle East events. Traders would have bought and 
sold futures contracts based on their predictions about what might 
happen in that region of the world. 

DARPA would have used information gained from this trading to help 
predict actual terrorist activity -- say, the next large terror attack 
on Israel or the possible assassination of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

As soon as they learned of details of this project, two Democratic 
senators jumped all over it. Republicans quickly joined them, not only 
because the idea sounds irresponsible, if not silly, but because 
Pentagon budget proposals never made clear that Congress would be funding it.

Plans for the project were well underway. Investors were to begin 
registering Friday and trading would have begun Oct. 1.

Amid a wild burst of criticism, the Pentagon on Tuesday abandoned 
plans for the market.

The idea was poor, born of the prevailing American mentality that 
gambling can be used to promote the general welfare. When states 
sponsor lotteries to run senior citizen centers and American Indians 
sponsor casinos to run reservations, why not try to predict (and 
possibly intercept?) terrorism based on betting patterns?

However, some people are carrying criticism of this plan too far when 
they urge that DARPA itself be reined in. DARPA's primary value lies 
in its ability to create what may seem to be absurd ideas but which in 
actuality may provide solutions to significant challenges.

Since its creation five decades ago, DARPA has enjoyed many successes. 
Its biggest splash was invention of the Internet. DARPA also developed 
the stealth technology that renders U.S. jets invisible to radar.

One of DARPA's current projects involves examining techniques for 
detecting underground bunkers and activity in them. If this technology 
is perfected, it could be applied to finding Saddam Hussein and 
possibly Osama bin Laden.

Occasionally, DARPA runs off the tracks. The agency recently developed 
a plan to examine citizens' medical records and credit card receipts 
as part of the war on terrorism. Civil libertarians and Congress have 
viewed this Big Brother idea -- first titled Total Information 
Awareness and later Terrorism Information Awareness -- with skepticism.

DARPA's plans that go awry suggest that the agency must be constantly 
monitored in order to keep it from thinking so far outside the box 
that it undermines American freedom and values.

But those who believe DARPA should be ditched because it has made some 
mistakes misunderstand the nature of free thinking about American 
security issues. Such mistakes are almost an inevitable part of a 
truly creative and worthwhile process.

"They (DARPA) are asking fascinating and challenging questions, and 
attempting to provide some bold answers," says an intelligence 
specialist with the Federation of American Scientists. "They should be 
encouraged, but they should also be carefully supervised."

Maintaining that balance will not be easy, but why expect that 
safeguarding both American freedom and security would be easy?