The Ledger (Lakeland, FL)

August 1, 2003, Friday

SECTION: News; Pg. A20

LENGTH: 572 words

HEADLINE: BETTING ON CATASTROPHE; EDITORIAL

BODY:
Too bad there's not a futures market that makes book on whether anyone 
in Washington can come up with an idea more wacky than the one put 
forth by John Poindexter, the national security adviser to former 
President Reagan.

The odds would likely be astronomical, but, given Washington's 
penchant for one-upping itself in the Department of Duh, it's an 
almost certain bet in the long run.

The retired admiral, head of the Pentagon's Terrorist Information 
Awareness program, had put forth the creation of a futures market in 
terror. Investors would buy and sell futures on possible terrorist 
events -- whether the head of state for a foreign county might be 
assassinated, for instance. Limited to 10,000 "in the know" people, 
this market could help the Pentagon stop potential trouble, or so the 
reasoning went. 

Poindexter the bookie is the same shell-game operator who, in the 
1980s, had the idea of establishing a secret fund so then-President 
Reagan could use funds raised by the sale of Stinger missiles to Iran 
to finance the fighting of Contra guerrillas in Nicaragua.

Who better to play the role of this administration's latest fall guy? 
Let a loose cannon roll on the deck, and it's a sure bet a ball will 
go whizzing into the captain's cabin.

If terrorists are on the loose, why not create a market so someone can 
make a profit? It's the American way.

U.S. Sen. John Warner, R-Va., chairman of the Senate Armed Services 
Committee, found the idea so bizarre that on Monday, the day the 
futures market was discovered, he called for a halt to it before its 
Oct. 1 start-up date.

Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., called the program "wasteful and absurd." He 
said $ 600,000 had been spent on the program; another $ 149,000 was 
scheduled to be spent this fiscal year. The Pentagon, while 
downplaying the importance of the program, had requested $ 8 million 
for it through 2005.

Amid the firestorm, the Pentagon announced the next day that all bets were off.

Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz told reporters, "I share your 
shock at this kind of program," adding that he had learned of it 
through the media (which may say something about the Pentagon's 
intelligence system itself).

Futures markets are nothing new -- mainly because they're useful tools 
for gauging the strength of financial and commodities markets.

The same type system that gives investors and producers an inkling of 
where coffee, pork bellies or the Dow Jones Industrial Average may be 
headed is the same one Poindexter wanted to use to find out the odds 
of terrorists blowing up Shamu the killer whale or kidnapping King Abdullah.

Where's Miss Cleo when you really need her?

Of course, the futures markets for coffee and pork bellies are based 
on past performance, supply, demand, weather conditions and a host of 
other factors that statisticians track with the passion and 
fastidiousness of a Major League Baseball scorer. Investors use those 
figures to make the markets. Predicting terrorist activities could 
benefit from insider knowledge -- and a Tarot deck.

Poindexter now finds himself the topic of a Dublin-based futures 
exchange. At the request of traders, TradeSports.com has a contract on 
whether Poindexter will still be in his job by the end of

August. Early trading gives him only a little better than a 50-50 chance.

No word on what the bidding is for the possibility that he will be 
replaced by Dr. Strangelove.