Moscow News (Russia) August 6, 2003 SECTION ABROAD; No. 30 LENGTH 1226 words HEADLINE ANTITERRORISM EFFORT SHORT ON SUBSTANCE BYLINE By Ilya Baranikas MN New York bureau HIGHLIGHT The Pentagon was asked to close the Policy Analysis Market BODY Are intelligence, counterintelligence, and military officials supposed to think creatively? They are - otherwise they will not be able to collate facts, make conclusions, and forecast future developments. The lack of creative thinking was one of the main charges leveled against security and intelligence services in the aftermath of 9/11. Today government departments engaged in combating terrorism are literally vying with each other in the creative domain. Not even the summer lull has affected the creativity of U.S. military, security, and intelligence services. The Pentagon came up with an unconventional project - an on-line futures market to predict terrorist acts. Any citizen can anonymously bet on the likelihood of particular terrorist acts, coups, or assassination attempts. That is, any citizen could do that if the project was allowed to go ahead. A market trader could gamble on the chances of a bomb attack on the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, the hijacking of a Russian plane by Chechen terrorists, a BW attack by Arab extremists on Israel, a North Korean missile strike against Japan, and so forth. Nothing was supposed to limit the apocalyptic imagination of visitors to the new Internet site created by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency - the Pentagon's leading think tank. To make a bet, a trader would need to register and place a certain sum of money on his on-line account. Recently the agency brought a scandal on itself when it proposed a system of electronic surveillance of citizens in an effort to identify possible terrorists. The high-tech idea created such a furor that it was soon buried. Now the pattern has been repeated News of the futures market outraged Congressmen, the media, human rights organizations, etc. No sooner had The New York Times written about the new betting operation than the DARPA gave up on the idea, admitting as much in its July 29 release. True, it sought to defend the innovation Futures markets, the press release says, have shown their effectiveness, among other things, in predicting oil prices and election results, the implication being, why not apply them to terrorism? The Department of Homeland Security is another great innovator. This super-agency recently launched an Internet site designed to get citizens ready for terrorist WMD attacks (http/www.ready.gov). The site features such sections as Chemical Threat, Biological Threat, Nuclear Blast, etc. Click on the Nuclear Blast and you will learn what to do if a nuclear bomb has exploded in your neighborhood. The masterminds behind these and other recommendations must be pursuing a high-minded goal - to inspire confidence in the American nation's security, which is safeguarded by the new department. As a matter of fact, local media outlets point out, these security recipes can only cause incomprehension or even panic among the general public. The ideas of Tom Ridge, secretary of the Homeland Security Department, will hardly add to his popularity. Take for instance the color code alert system, introduced in March 2002. Each level of alert is assigned a particular color - from green to red. But the department does not offer any coherent explanation for switching from one level to another. Code orange has been issued eight times, and each time a government official has come up with some vague warning. This "creativity" by security and intelligence services could be compared to a burglar alarm system that goes off not when there has been a break-in but whenever someone walks past the building. Not surprisingly, people feel increasingly annoyed. This reporter had an opportunity to see that for himself when vacationing in Florida with people from all parts of the USA. On those rare occasions when the Department of Homeland Security does provide some details, it would be better off not doing so. For instance, last week the Americans were alerted to the possibility of an airplane hijack by terrorists on a suicide mission. First, despite the disturbing announcement of a higher alert level, the department for some reason did not upgrade code yellow to code orange. Just how logical was that? Second, Tom Ridge's department issued inaccurate information about the possibility of terrorist attacks also in Australia (in addition to Great Britain and Italy). Australian authorities responded immediately by saying that there was no evidence to substantiate the possibility of a terrorist attack on Australian territory. An embarrassed Homeland Security Department had to acknowledge the mistake, saying it only meant that Australian territory could be used as staging grounds for a terrorist attack against other countries. When experts are asked how the alert system should be modernized, many say that is should not be modernized but scrapped It is unnecessary in principle. It probably benefits only shop owners whenever a security alert provokes a new round of panic buying. That was the case, e.g., in February 2003 when Tom Ridge recommended keeping a supply of duct tape and plastic sheeting in homes to seal off windows in the event of a chemical or biological attack. That was quite a boon for owners of construction materials and suchlike stores. In late July President Bush held a news conference. Incidentally, it was his first news conference since the beginning of the war in Iraq and eighth throughout his term in the White House. To compare His father had conducted 61 and Bill Clinton 33 news conferences in the same period. But in this case it is not about the number of meetings with journalists but what the U.S. head of state had to tell them. George W. Bush defended his security and intelligence services - both on hijack alerts and reports of alleged weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. In both cases we have to deal with real threats, he stressed. Yet the public wants hard facts, something that is sorely lacking. It is only known that the United States has scored military victories in Afghanistan and Iraq, but tens of thousands of terrorists trained in al-Qaeda camps are still at large. It is also known that Mullah Omar, bin Laden and Saddam Hussein have yet to be caught. So the security and intelligence agencies have a great incentive to advance their creative thinking. "This 'creativity' by security and intelligence services could be compared to a burglar alarm system that goes off not when there has been a break-in but whenever someone walks past the building" FACT BOX As of August 1, the U.S. visa issue procedure has been revised at U.S. embassies throughout the world. Virtually all non-immigrant visa applicants will need to appear in person for an interview. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow recommends that you submit your visa application at least 6-8 weeks prior to your estimated travel date. The only people who might be eligible for a visa without an interview are a) Children 16 years of age or under; b) Persons 60 years of age or older; c) Applicants who seek reissuance of the same classification of U.S. visa within twelve months of the expiration of a previously issued visa at the Embassy or Consulate for the district in which they are resident applicants need to submit the original previous visa used to qualify ; d) Applicants for diplomatic or official visas.