METROPOLITAN DESK

NYC; Games Of Chance For Wonks

By CLYDE HABERMAN (NYT) 866 words

The hands-down winner is the Pentagon's plan to create a futures trading market in which speculators may wager on the likelihood of terrorist attacks, assassinations and other forms of mayhem. Invest cunningly and predict wisely, and you, too, can make a killing on a killing. Preliminary steps to turn this concept into a reality were to have been made today.

Somehow, though, the idea of a government-sponsored program for placing bets on when terrorists might slam an airplane into another building struck many people as, shall we say, distasteful. As a result, this is a futures market without a future. When the existence of the plan came to light a few days ago, an embarrassed Pentagon drove a stake right through its heart.

But is it not possible that the big thinkers in Washington were on to something that New York State could modify and turn to advantage?

What is a futures market, after all, but gambling gussied up as investing? More and more, New York depends on gambling money to keep itself in business, from lottery games to the high-tech slot machines that are about to be installed at racetracks.

Government's growing addiction to this revenue, based as it is on human frailty, has many critics. Over the years, they have been given ample space in this column to express their unhappiness.

At some point, however, one must acknowledge the inevitable. State-sponsored gambling is here to stay. That being the case, perhaps it can be made more stimulating than the present mindless system of picking a few numbers at random, or as they came in a dream, or as they appear on one's birth certificate.

How about a display of creativity? Allow New Yorkers to bet on future local events, much as the Pentagon planners wanted a trading bazaar -- or should that be ''bizarre''? -- for terrorism.

Certain constraints may be needed. It is probably not a good idea to permit speculation on how many New Yorkers will be murdered in a given year. Someone who bets the farm on a high number may be tempted to take matters into his own hands if December arrives with the body count running low. The goal here is not to drum up business for Murder Incorporated.

But there are countless possibilities with less lethal potential, games that appeal to different tastes in a highly complex city and state. When it comes to things to bet on, New York is what the Pentagon types might call a target-rich environment.

For policy wonks, there could be a new kind of New York Pick 10. You don't choose numbers willy-nilly, as in the existing Pick 10. Instead, you select the 10 digits -- some may appear more than once -- that will form the city's projected budget deficit for the following year. Pick these numbers in their precise sequence and win a bonus.

A political variation is Pick 9, representing the dollars that Michael R. Bloomberg will spend to win re-election in 2005. (Caution: Pick 9 is the tentative name of the game. It could morph into another variation of Pick 10 if Mr. Bloomberg finds himself in serious trouble and digs deeper into his pockets.)

Other games for the policy-and-politics crowd would allow speculation on the next office that Mark Green might run for. Or perhaps on the exact date that Albany will pass the state budget next year. Under proposed rules, any date may be chosen except March 31, because the payoff for that choice could break the bank. That is supposed to be the budget deadline, not that it has been met anytime in the last two decades.

NOT interested in dull government stuff? Fair enough. There are many other possibilities.

You could bet on when Liza Minnelli will next take a husband, or on where in town Mike Tyson will throw his next punch, or on how many times a week The New York Post will put Sarah Jessica Parker's picture on Page 3 after the final episode of ''Sex and the City.''

In a particularly devilish game, you would select the year you believe the Second Avenue subway will be completed. The hitch is that even if you win, you may not be around to collect. Details on this one need refining.

But it's all doable. And the possibilities are limitless. All you have to do is tell the customers that the dollars they throw away will go to a worthwhile cause: education. That's what the New York Lottery already says, and many people believe it.

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