Portland Press Herald (Maine) July 30, 2003 Wednesday, FINAL Edition SECTION EDITORIAL; Pg. 9A LENGTH 786 words HEADLINE Investment program could have encouraged terrorism; Luckily, our nation's lawmakers scrapped the plan for a futures market in the Mideast's instability. BYLINE Nikki Kallio staff writer BODY A political fiasco has been narrowly averted, thanks to two Democratic senators who called national attention on Monday to another brilliant plan brought to you courtesy of the Defense Department. The department had plans to set up a futures market, called the Policy Analysis Market program, based on the political instability of the Middle East. Basically, investors could have bet on whether certain governments would be overthrown, whether leaders would be assassinated or if terrorist attacks would occur. It would work similarly to agriculture futures in which traders predict whether certain crops would do well, except this system would allow traders to predict whether people would live or die. It's not that it wouldn't have worked. It's just that it was totally sick. Once the plan hit the media - thanks to a press conference called by Democratic Senators Byron Dorgan of North Dakota and Ron Wyden of Oregon - other lawmakers were rightly appalled by it, and it was canned Tuesday. The New York Times reported that Dorgan had trouble convincing people the plan wasn't a hoax. It wasn't, folks. Registration was supposed to start Friday. Learn all about it at its Web site, www.policyanalysismarket.org. The site gives examples of how the futures would work, explaining how a person could make a "handsome profit" if events occur in a certain manner. As long as the trader wouldn't mind profiting from death, sure. The system would have included events in Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey. The Defense Department said the program could be extremely effective in predicting when and where terrorist attacks would occur. True, especially if terrorists invest in it. Senators pointed out in the Times story that the identities of traders would remain unknown, making it a distinct possibility that the system would actually encourage terrorism. It also could serve to mislead investigators if terrorists bet against attacks. I have my doubts, though, that the identities of traders really would be kept secret, considering where the plan originated. This was the idea of none other than the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, the mothership of the Total Information Awareness system. The system, now renamed Terrorism Information Awareness (presumably to sound less threatening to the average American) is a massive computer surveillance system that was designed to glean and compile ordinary information such as credit card transactions, travel reservations, medical records and financial transactions from databases to hunt for potential terrorists. Congress has temporarily blocked the department from using the system against Americans, and the Senate has refused to fund it. The House, however, has not. Both the Terrorism Information Awareness system and the Policy Analysis Market are directed by retired Vice Adm. John Poindexter, the former national security adviser for President Reagan whose conviction for covering up information in the Iran-Contra scandal in the 1980s was later overturned. I'd say we've had just about enough ideas out of this guy. The Senate's version of next year's defense bill eliminates funding for the Policy Analysis Market program, though the House version does not. The Associated Press said that leaders have agreed to yank any remaining funding during conference committee negotiations. That's good. So far, the program has cost $600,000. I don't know about you, but I can think of a few other things on which I'd rather spend the money. Like stabilizing Iraq, for instance, instead of funding a system that would let people place bets on when it's going to explode. I tend to think the families of soldiers who are stationed there might feel the same way. Also, did anyone think about how Mideast leaders would react knowing that Americans are treating the instability of their nations like a hockey game? Pop some corn, crack open a beer and slap a few bucks down on whether they start shooting each other again? Lovely. That's got to be good for improving our image overseas. Dorgan, one of the senators who called on the Pentagon to stop the trading system, made a good point What if other countries set up a pool on events in America? What if Mideastern governments established a futures system on whether President Bush would be assassinated? Or if terrorists would hijack a plane and crash it into the Sears Tower? Or detonate a dirty bomb in Portland? Did anyone stop to consider that? I wouldn't bet on it. - Nikki Kallio is an editorial writer for the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram. She can be reached at 791-6481 or nkallio@pressherald.com .