The Washington Post

August 7, 2003 Thursday
Final Edition

SECTION: EDITORIAL; Pg. A20

LENGTH: 271 words

HEADLINE: The Pentagon's Ill-Conceived Market

BODY:


The lament of professors Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz [op-ed, July
31] over the termination of the Pentagon's "terrorism futures market"
rested on false premises.

Aside from the fact that it is disgusting to have our government promoting
wagering on whether and when a foreign leader will be assassinated or how many
U.S. soldiers will die, the professors assume the tax-funded online betting
parlor would produce useful information that would save lives.

But the Pentagon's futures market invited manipulation, either by those who
wanted to win their bets or by those -- say, actual terrorists -- who wished to
mislead.

Yes, markets on occasion have predicted future events, but they often fail to do
that as well. Ask any former dot-com billionaire whose billions evaporated or
Enron employee whose retirement fund nose-dived. No responsible public official
would make life-and-death policy decisions based on what markets have to say at
any given time.

The professors also sidestepped the moral question. It is morally bankrupt for a
government agency to make a profitable game out of the deaths of American
troops, heads of state and nuclear missile attacks.

When Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and I revealed this plan, we described it as
immoral and stupid. The Pentagon at first tried to defend it. Then, as protest
mounted, it terminated it.

It's too bad the two professors are unable to see beyond their academic dogma
and recognize that this was a bizarre plan to produce useless, tasteless and
unreliable "information" at a cost of millions of wasted tax dollars.

BYRON L. DORGAN

U.S. Senator (D-N.D.)

Washington