1988 Robin Hason, now at George Mason University, floats the notion of "idea futures" and suggests that controversial public-policy questions should be answered by large groups of people who participate in betting markets instead of by so-called experts

1988 Economists at the University of Iowa start a market for betting on the outcome of presidential elections. It turns out to be a better predictor than public-opinion polls

1996 Market researchers launch the Hollywood Stock Exchange, in which people bet play money on celebrity and movie events. The HSX has an uncanny ability to forecast Oscar nominations

1996 Caltech professor Charles Plott and Kay-Yut Chen at HP run the first tests of an internal market developed at the company to predict, among other things, computer sales. When groups of employees trade, the wind up with better predictions than managers' official forecasts

2003 A Pentagon project that would have helped predict terrorist attacks draws harsh public criticism and is tabled just months before its planned debut

2003 M.I.T.'s Technology Review sets up Innovation Futures, a website on which people can win prizes by making smart trades in markets that aim to predict technology-related business adn economic events. Tech Review hopes to refine the system, then sell it to companies.