The Economic Times of India, Coleman & Co Ltd  
The Economic Times

August 5, 2003

LENGTH: 161 words

HEADLINE: BATTLE OVER TERRORISM FUTURES 'MARKET'

BODY:


A plan to create a futures market to help predict terrorist strikes has created
great controversy in the US. Critics have blasted policy-makers for dropping a
plan to create the 'market.'

However, proponents of the Pentagon's Policy Analysis Market (PAM) say its
cancellation will rob intelligence agencies of a tool with a strong history of
accurately predicting future events, reports Wired magazine.

Senators expressed concern when they discovered PAM, an effort to speculate on
possible events in the Middle East - like the overthrow of Jordan's monarchy or
the assassination of Yasser Arafat - as if they were stocks.

The higher the price, the theory goes, the more likely the incident. But
supporters of the project point out that gathering intelligence is often a messy
business, with payoffs to unsavoury characters and elimination of adversaries.

The futures market, ugly as it may sound, doesn't involve any of those moral
compromises.