BETTING ON SECURITY ; A SECOND OUTLANDISH INTELLIGENCE-GATHERING PLAN CASTS 
DOUBTS ON THE USEFULNESS OF A NEW AGENCY AND THE GOVERNMENT'S ABILITY TO 
KEEP US SAFE.

EDITORIAL

31 July 2003
Greensboro News & Record
A14

The Pentagon abandoned its latest scheme to forecast terrorist attacks, 
assassinations and coups Tuesday: a Web site where anonymous investors could 
bet on the likelihood of such events. Now the debunked program has been 
consigned to where it should have been all along, on the scrap heap of 
junked policies.

The Pentagon had hoped investors eager to make a profit would speculate 
using their insider knowledge and provide tips through the market's 
movements about impending threats. Its authors argued that such wagers on 
the future have successfully predicted other events, such as oil prices and 
movie theater box office revenues.

Trouble is, the Israeli prime minister's assassination is a bit more 
significant than the gross for "Bad Boys II." A robust market and anonymity 
actually might have encouraged terrorism, allowing a well-financed terrorist 
like Osama bin Laden to profit from orchestrating a suicide bombing, or bid 
up the price against a bogus hijacking to mislead U.S. intelligence 
authorities and make a killing in the market.

After all, who has more insider knowledge on terror than would- be terrorists?

Pentagon officials publicly pooh-poohed critics' concerns but stealthily 
removed from a Web site sample wagers that had been visible earlier in the 
day. By afternoon, few could support the effort with a straight face.

But in all fairness, consider its source. Disaster trading was the 
brainchild of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. DARPA also 
spawned Total Information Awareness, a plan to spy on Americans' medical, 
bank, travel and credit records so Orwellian that Congress blocked its 
domestic use.

Heading this shadow organization is a master of shady dealings, Vice Adm. 
John Poindexter, former national security adviser when the Reagan 
administration sold arms to Iran in exchange for hostages and illegally 
funneled the money to Nicaraguan rebels. His conviction for lying to 
Congress about the affair was later overturned on a technicality.

His latest aborted scheme should sound the death knell for Poindexter's 
agency and send him back into retirement. There have been few better 
examples of unchecked power's corrupting influence.

Said a letter to Poindexter from Senate critics: "The American people want 
the federal government to use its resources enhancing our security, not 
gambling on it."

Coming hard on the heels of a scathing report about pre-9/11 failures, the 
terror futures idea does nothing to inspire confidence in our 
intelligence-gathering capabilities. And it's especially troubling that, 
after the bursting of the dot-com and telecom bubbles showed investors to be 
just as misinformed as the feds, the government would still be desperate 
enough to resort to financial fortune-telling.

We like Sen. Ron Wyden's novel suggestion for gathering intelligence: "You 
ought to go on the basis of real evidence from the real world."

Failing that, it might be cheaper and just as effective to consult a psychic 
hot line. {SEND} YES