Tampa Tribune (Florida)

                     August 1, 2003, Friday, FINAL EDITION

SECTION BAYLIFE, Pg. 1

LENGTH 350 words

HEADLINE This Market Analysis Points To Nutty Stuff

BYLINE KEVIN WALKER , kwalker@tampatrib.com; Kevin Walker can be reached at
(813) 259-7975. You can also read his column online at rail.TBO.com

BODY

   Gee, what kind of country is this if we can't even have government-sponsored
gambling on future events in the Middle East?

   Oh, that's right. A sane one.

   Pentagon officials decided this week to pull the plug on the Policy Analysis
Market, in which investors would have placed bets on events in the Middle East
happening at a certain time - chemical attacks, suicide bombings, etc.

   Sound nuts? I thought so. Still do, actually.
However, I've learned - through Slate magazine - that the nuttiness is more
pervasive than I thought.

   According to a Slate story, some economists believe such exotic markets can
help predict future events, just like a rising stock supposedly signals a rosy
future for a company on the New York Stock Exchange.

   Pentagon planners bought into this theory and invested time and money to
develop the Policy Analysis Market, thinking it might be helpful in military
planning.

   Ah. Good plan, gang!

   Still, other exotic markets are out there. Here are a few examples listed by
Slate (www.slate.msn.com) that are available to investors (and government policy
planners)

   Iowa Electronic Markets - People can bet on the outcome of presidential
elections, among other things.

   Athletic Stock Exchange - Investors can buy and trade stocks in athletes,
making money if they perform well.

   TradeSports.com - The Irish company has a "current events" section allowing
bets on such things as the date Osama bin Laden or Saddam Hussein will be
captured.

   Hollywood Stock Exchange - Investors buy and trade stocks in movies, based on
box office performance. However, it's all "play" money, so you won't lose your
shirt if the new "Tomb Raider" movie tanks (which, as of this writing, it is).

   Every time I think it can't get any stranger out there, it does.

   Of course, the next bit of this column involves a make-believe dog who talks,
so who am I to point fingers?

   BOBO THE DOG SAYS "It's a sin to live in a neighborhood as dangerous as
this."

   BOBO REDUX Turn to Page 2 of BayLife and be enlightened. This week's T-shirt
winner is David Michaels.

NOTES THE RAIL