From The Wall Street Journal, Wednesday, August 30, 1995, page A14, column 4.

Notable & Quotable

A proposal for an "idea futures" market by Robin Hanson, a doctoral student at the California Institute of Technology, in the September issue of Wired magazine:

Imagine a betting pool on disputed science questions, where the current odds are treated as the current intellectual consensus. For example, people might bet on whether cold fusion will be used to produce power by the year 2020. Right now the odds would be fairly low - say 20-to-1 against. But as the results of new research became known, and if more people became convinced that cold fusion worked, the odds would rise. And if cold fusion became a reality by 2020, those early supporters would make a bundle. ...

The system could increase the public's interest and role in science, and betting odds could serve as a scientific barometer to guide mass media and public opinion.


Sean Morgan points out: The last two words in the Wired article were "public policy". Did the WSJ balk at such a concept?
Robin Hanson hanson@hss.caltech.edu August 30, 1995